Some Mailbox Math.

If you haven’t heard, Orchestra Inc. is releasing a new mail client for GMail and iOS called Mailbox. It’s gotten quite a bit of buzz in the tech arena recently, mostly because of a unique reservation system. The app is live on Apple’s App Store, but instead of being greeted with setup and login information, Orchestra is requiring it’s users to queue up for invitations.

Between it’s launch on the App Store yesterday and writing this post, ~544,000 people are still waiting on invitations. My personal spot as of this moment is 265,126 (with 265,125 people in front of me, and 279,000 behind me). Want to know when you’ll get your invite? Do some basic math.

At a rate of 1 invite/10 seconds, I shouldn’t expect to see my invite for at least another month. Precisely, when I did the math, I could garner my invite in 1 month, 2 days, 10 hours, 6 minutes, and 20 seconds.

Yesterday, this would have seemed accurate as maybe only ~2-3K invites were sent. However, if you watch the line from the Mailbox App, it’s moving relatively fast. At a rate of 5 seconds per invite, I could receive my invite in just over a week. Sometimes it does move faster, and it’s somewhat difficult to get an average ratio considering invites are sent around the clock. Taking into account downtime and uptime, anywhere from 5-10s/invite seems appropriate.

Should I worry about my invite? I wouldn’t. Currently, Mailbox only supports GMail accounts, so for @me and Exchange aficionados, keep using the built in Mail client.

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